Skip to main content

Hurst Nominal Cycle Model

Hurst's cycle theory states that the movement of financial market prices is the result of the combination of harmonically related cycles. Hurst recommended a collection of 11 cycles for daily analysis. These cycles are referred to as the Nominal Model

He did extensive research and discovered 11 cycles ranging from 5 days to 18 years found in a large number of stocks. He published the average wavelength of each of these cycles in his Cycle Course. 

Nominal cyclical model is actually the full name, but is simplified to Nominal Model for simplicity. Thus, for example, what we are often referring to is the nominal 20-week cycle, which means that we are discussing the cycle to which the name 20 weeks has been given. The cycle is not really 20 weeks long due to the dynamic nature of cycles. Cycles are not perfectly even. Cycles vary around their length, phase and amplitude over time. Therefore the use of additional techniques to deal with the principle of cycle variation, like Digital Signal Processing, are required.

The Hurst Nominal Cycle Model
Name (Nominal Cycle) Average length Average length (days)
5 day 4.3 days 4.3 days
10 day 8.5 days 8.5 days
20 day 17 days 17 days
40 day 34.1 days 34.1 days
80 day 68.2 days 68.2 days
20 week 19.48 weeks 136.4 days
40 week 38.97 weeks 272.8 days
18 month 17.93 months 545.6 days
54 month 53.77 months 1636.8 days
9 year 8.96 years 3272.6  days
18 year 17.93 years 6547.2 days

Source: Hurst Cycles Course